Parting Shots – An Alternative View of the UK in the Middle East

All over the Foreign Office network, we draw on advice and analysis from our brilliant locally engaged staff. One of our colleagues here, Nadim Zaazaa, is leaving us to work on an exciting project – the UK-Lebanon Tech Hub. See here for more details. He shared with me some parting thoughts about the Middle East, and the UK’s role in the region. These are not necessarily my views, nor those of the British government. But the last week has been a reminder that we all need to be more open minded about critical views. So – with Nadim’s permission – I wanted to share them on this blog to see what you think, and to continue the more open, honest and challenging debate that we seek.

Dear Ambassador,

When I took the decision to join your team as a political officer, I worried about justifying this decision to many of my sceptical friends. I joined because I wanted to experience firsthand how politics, governments, and the real world actually worked. Three years and numerous experiences later, I leave the embassy having learned immensely from my interactions with the people, the analysis, the decisions, and the situations – which at times were quite intense. But it all surprisingly challenged the pessimist in me. It demonstrated, despite the many times we may differ on the means, that both our countries are working to be stable, secure, and prosperous allies.

I leave the embassy with the greatest sense of pride and achievement. I am proud that I was on the team that supports the Lebanese army in Arsal, that provides books to every student in Lebanon, and that is now thinking outside the box on economic partnerships between our countries. I am most proud that I belong to a team that has systematically invited my challenging its thinking and policy. As I prepare for my next endeavour, I will do this for one last time and share my top three takeaways from three years of political work for the UK in both Lebanon and the Middle East:    

What the international community does, matters. Internationals engage Lebanon’s lounger Zaims often with concentration spans of no longer than three years. Entertain their idiosyncrasies and you end up legitimising them. Ignore them, and they will light the fire that brings you back running. You need a strategy that does not cater to the whims of politicians but to the aspirations of citizens. Only then can you end this oligarchy by proxy, governance by neglect, and kleptocracy by implication. You may not like it, but you are implicated in all that happens in this part of the world. You simply cannot look the other way. If you don’t come to the Middle East, the Middle East will come to you. You have a role to play: better a peace-builder abroad than a fire fighter at home.

Play by your values; they are your real strength. Values trump interests, eventually. It’s a hard sell when the world around you is burning. But raise your head above the cloud line and you will see it sitting right in front of you. The Cold War was won by values not by weapons. I’m referring specifically to handling regional woes. Don’t favour a side in the Sunni-Shia divide; better to dismiss them all. Sectarianism is the code, but power is the algorithm. In your world, power belongs to the people. It belongs to the citizen, equal to their peers under the just rule of law. European sectarian wars only ended when embattled monarchies recognised each other out of fatigue, paved way for civil societies and eventually a democratic state that recognised humans as equal citizens with undeniable rights, not communal perks. The same will apply for the Middle East. Both sides can be equally mischievous and destructive when at loggerheads. And both sides can only end this absurd bloodbath once they realize that there is room for all in the region. There is no end to this game unless you reinforce the very values you uphold at home – truly.

Inclusive prosperity is your third pillar of stability. All Middle Eastern states should undertake reform and should do it collaboratively. This is an integrated region and it is demonstrating that in the most unconstructive ways. We need to turn this around or else the Middle East will continue to sizzle for decades, mainly rocking global resolve. Regional stability will remain largely lacking as long as the world pays what it pays for the oil barrel, to sustain £200 billion per year of Gulf spending without it investing in sustainable and inclusive regional growth, investing in its own people. This is an unsustainable model. Cash will begin to dry up as oil prices fall, jobs in the Gulf will wither, and the beneficiaries will return to their home countries. Imagine the state of affairs when remittances begin to dry up and many return unemployed and probably disenfranchised by exclusive political systems. Yes, the world is becoming less dependent on Middle Eastern oil, but it is more dependent on its spending power. Without this spending, global markets will be rocked, and of course, so will global security. From that lens, the Arab revolutions were against failing states not attending to an increasingly sophisticated and demanding cross-national Arab middle class. The Arab Spring was an early warning and we need to pick up the signals.

Ambassador,

I’m moving on to new endeavours and I wish you the best in yours. Most of what I will be doing next, is basically planning a LEB 2020 reunion. I know you will certainly be there.

Best regards,
Nadim Zaazaa