Lebanon: Optimists, Pessimists and Realists

A former British Ambassador here was asked at the end of a radio interview what he would like for Christmas. Thinking it typical Lebanese generosity but not wanting to be too greedy, he gave a modest reply. Listening to the broadcast later, he was shocked to hear several envoys asked the same question.

The US Ambassador said ‘peace in the Middle East’. The French Ambassador said ‘human rights and liberty for all’. They then broadcast the British response: ‘how kind of you to ask, a small box of kneffeh would be charming if that is not too much trouble’. The Brits have always been realists.

One of the questions I ask Lebanese interlocutors is ‘are you optimistic or pessimistic?’. This is partly because (Beirutopia , Leb2020) I like to challenge the instinctive fatalism of many. But it is also because I want to get a sense of that elusive, unquantifiable but vital commodity: confidence. As Maxime Cheya, legendary explorer and Lebanese optimist, fresh from breaking the world record for the fastest Indian Ocean crossing, puts it: ‘when you have that confidence, everything else follows’.

As this is Lebanon, there are of course over 4m different answers to the optimism/pessimism question. Someone told me that the definition of a Lebanese pessimist was a Lebanese optimist with facts. Someone else illustrated Gung-Ho optimism with the story about a Lebanese man falling off a 100 storey building. As he passed the 40^th floor, someone called out ‘how’s it going?’, and he replied, ‘going well, so far …’.

The facts making the pessimists pessimistic are clear: a struggling economy; relentless contagion from Syria in the form of over 750,000 registered refugees; stale politics and a stalemated state; porous borders; difficult neighbours. As Woody Allen said, channelling his inner Lebanese, “it’s not paranoia when they’re really all out to get you”.

The regional context is gloomy, with the Syria conflict seemingly as intractable as ever, and extremism mounting. Sitting on so many political (and literal) faultlines, the Lebanese are used to suffering when the regional tectonic plates shift.

But the optimists can point to what may have been the most significant UN General Assembly, in diplomatic terms, in a generation. With the Syria chemical weapons deal, talks underway between Israel and Palestine, and signs of a thaw between Iran and the international community, it is possible to imagine a period in which dialogue, tolerance and pragmatism get a look in.

Quite a novelty in the recent Middle East. We are working hard to build on unprecedented solidarity and support for Lebanon, as demonstrated by the launch of the International Support Group. Of course, progress needs cool heads to prevail in Tehran and Tel Aviv, Ramallah and Riyadh. But we are in a new and hopefully more constructive phase, after two years (more in the case of Israel/Palestine) of Security Council disunity and failure.

The optimists also point to the extraordinary resilience that Lebanon has shown so far. Many would not have predicted that the country would have absorbed recent security shocks in the way it did. Neither the population at large nor key leaders want a return to conflict. One hotel owner told me recently that the secret of Lebanese resilience was that ‘when it is quiet, we build’.

Lebanon is always on a knife edge – but maybe it has learnt to dance, trade and coexist on it.

For me, the real questions for the optimists/pessimists on the region will be answered among the populations at large rather than in diplomatic meeting rooms. The silent majority want security, justice and opportunity, and should judge their leaders on whether they can deliver. Different peoples face different dividing lines.

Do the people of Iran care more about getting a nuclear weapon or sanctions lifted? Do the people of Israel want security normalisation through a Palestinian state or to continue the occupation? Do the Syrian people want an end to conflict or victory of ‘their’ side? Do people in the West care more about the isolation of Iran or an end to the Syria conflict?

Do the Russian people want a common front against the conditions encouraging Islamist terror, or to protect clients at all costs? Do Saudis want containment of extremism across the region? Do the Palestinian people want another generation of conflict, or an imperfect but pragmatic peace deal that offers them dignity?

The Lebanese need the right answers to all these questions. But they also need to answer their own. Is it possible to build a stronger sense of national interests, or continue to be buffeted by regional alliances? Can a state be built and government formed based on those unifying national interests? As we approach the 70^th anniversary of Lebanon’s independence, Lebanese independence could be an idea whose time has come. Maybe then we could say that a Lebanese optimist is a Lebanese pessimist with facts.

We all have tough questions to answer. For the UK, our interests, our experience and our analysis demand that we remain realists. But I remain an optimistic one.