The Year of Living Dangerously

It is a year since Mohamed Bouazizi doused himself in petrol and set fire to himself. He was protesting because he was unable to earn a living.  At the time I was studying Arabic in London. I struggled to understand the Arabic words used in the news reports. But I wasn’t alone in failing to understand that he had sparked off the most momentous year in recent history in the Arab world.

Since then many people have been killed, leaders have fallen and governments have changed. Many commentators will try to draw conclusions, but in fact the only safe conclusion is that the pressure for change in the Arab world will continue. No-one can predict where we will be in another year’s time.

I have found it fascinating to watch these developments and to have the privilege of living in the Middle East at the present time. As an observer, trying to stand back from the daily wave of news from one Arab capital or another, I would draw out some important points.

First, people in the Middle East are simply demanding what people throughout history have demanded: jobs, bread, the ability to feed their families and the dignity that comes from doing so. This is no different from what the people of Britain ask of their government.

Secondly, while the driver for change is economic, the solution has to be political.  People in many countries are demanding a voice in the way they are governed, in many cases a voice that has been denied them for too long. Voters want a say in who takes decisions and that those people can be held accountable. Again, a simple and natural demand.

Third, those leaders who resisted change have been forced to leave or, like in Syria, are resorting to a brutal crackdown killing thousands of their own civilians to save themselves. On the other hand leaders who listened and responded to the demand for change are on the right path.

In all the countries where reform is underway a major challenge now is to manage expectations. People are understandably impatient for democracy, stability, and prosperity. They perhaps believe that, having overthrown a dictator, things will get better quickly. But in many revolutions, things often get worse before they get better.

A key measure of success in the coming years will be whether the challenge of creating thousands of new jobs can be met. A major switch of emphasis will be needed away from the public sector towards sustainable and productive jobs in the private sector.

Governments now need to demonstrate that they are embarking on a journey of change and that there is a clear destination. They also have to communicate how they intend to travel and the price of the ticket for getting there. That will help people to understand that the journey will have stops and starts and might even go backwards for a while. But there is a clear direction of travel and they must be patient.

The world will no doubt commemorate Bouazizi and the hundreds of others who have given their lives in the fight for dignity. Their bravery and sacrifice will not be in vain.