7th October 2012 Harare, Zimbabwe
Helmand: Reflections from PRT Joint Head of Politics – Nick Baker
As part of my guest blogger series I have invited the departing Joint Head of the PRT Politics Team , Nick Baker to blog about the change in Governor to Helmand and his time in Lashkar Gah.
Last month Governor Mangal was replaced. This is the most significant political event in Helmand for the last four and a half years, since Mangal took office. So it’s a fascinating time to be leaving the province for my last time.
Mangal had many strengths, being charming, intelligent and an adept politician. He was able to connect with people and bridge divides in a way that previous Governors had failed. He made a point of engaging with tribes like the Ishaqzai that had been historically hostile to the Afghan Government as well as groups whose views he may not have shared. Being a socialist party member, he set up a shura to talk to the former mujahedeen. Their influence and connections are a major force behind the politics of the region.
Mangal was proud to take visitors around the province, doing the rounds of the chai houses, to show them how much had changed. First-time visitors often arrived with trepidation and in fear for their lives, such is the reputation the province has for Afghans and internationals alike. Almost all of them left surprised at what they had seen: a sense of the normality of the place.
Whilst Mangal will be a loss, it is in some ways good that he moves on now. By his own admission he had had enough and was ready for a change. Better for that change to happen now when a new Governor has time to settle into the job, rather than closer to the completion of transition in 2014, when there will be no safety net.
His successor, General Mohammed Naem Baluch, will take on a province that is significantly more stable than Mangal did. All Mangal was given when he arrived was a satellite phone. When Baluch arrives today Mangal will give him a thorough handover. But he will face big challenges. Most, if not all, of Mangal’s special advisors will leave with him. Although the civil servants should stay on, there will no doubt be some teething problems as the administration adapts to a new Governor.
On the security front, the surge is now over and there are far fewer US marines in Helmand than there were six months ago. This puts more responsibility on the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), which is the whole point of transition. But the 2014 Presidential election will put their ability to the test. So whether Baluch will be able to maintain both the governance and security gains of Mangal’s tenure is far from a given.
From a personal perspective it has been a privilege to see this change happen, and to work with such a fascinating range of people, both Afghan and international. So whilst my own experience of Helmand has had its challenges, it has also been thoroughly rewarding. And I will be keeping a close eye on how things unfold in this complicated corner of the world.
But one of the key problems in Helmand has not been effectively addressed (over the past 4 years): the opium industry which is at the base of the Helmand economy, which has always been agricultural, and at the base of the government corruption which results in the lack of local government trust and support by the people who live there. Helmand still produces most of the world’s opium. The governor’s wheat program did nothing to address this issue. Wheat became the region’s primary cash crop in the early 1970s with the introduction of high-yielding varieties of wheat and the use of fertilizers but not now, and the wheat program was full of corruption and “mis-use of funds” which farmers took advantage of. But opium remains the primary cash crop…we would not want to upset the farmers with an attack on their primary cash crop. As in ’99 when the Taliban abolished the opium crop and got blamed by the international community for undercutting the local economy without offering alternatives, which we did not offer to support, the opium industry can only be addressed by an integrated, wide scoped program focused on helping the local farmers to change, not punishing them. Something we have been unable or unwilling to do over the past 11 years. I have been attempting to address this most important issue in my web site since 1998.