Five Challenges for Lebanon in 2014

A year ago, I shared elements of my annual review of the year in Lebanon.  One year on, we’re still running to stand still.

I’ve learnt three rules about diplomacy here. Never think you can understand Lebanon. Never think you can predict Lebanon. Never think you can fix Lebanon.

However, breaking at least one of these rules, I think that the first quarter of 2014 will be critical for Lebanon’s stability.

There are big regional issues that will have a deep impact on Lebanon – tough but vital talks on Syria, Israel/Palestine and Iran, and the Kuwait donor conference. This is the most important phase in a generation for Middle East diplomacy.

However, we also need to focus energy – relentlessly and belligerently – on the challenges that can actually be influenced inside Lebanon, and build the right international coalitions in support. Here are five.

1. Can we marshall the right interventions to limit the impact of the Winter on poorer parts of the country, including refugees? This requires stronger coordination, smarter delivery, and greater international generosity. Britain is playing its part as the second largest bilateral donor. (Check out DFID’s information page on what we’re doing). I hope that we’ll see the right structures in place to drive a coherent government response.
2. Can the Lebanese Army put out the worst fires as they spark, or – in some cases – are ignited? This requires the right kit, training and tactics, and subtle political handling. Britain has increased its support to the army tenfold in two years, focused specifically on what the army tells us it needs.
3. Can we minimise tensions between refugees and host communities? The Lebanese people have responded to the humanitarian crisis in Syria with extraordinary generosity. But as numbers of refugees rise, so do the challenges. It is vital that these are contained. Britain will be making new announcements on increased support for Lebanese communities, especially on education.
4. Can we continue to expand the international consensus on Lebanon’s neutrality, building on the breathing space created by the International Support Group? I hope that key regional actors, often highlighted by local players as blocking consensus, can work together to this effect. Britain will be trying to use our diplomatic outreach to build such wider support for stability. It is also a message that regional actors need to continue to hear from their Lebanese interlocutors.
5. Can Lebanon find a formula to get through the 2014 Presidential cliffhanger? This will require cool heads, public pressure for consensus, and leaders to prioritise Lebanese interests. Unlike at some previous such moments, geostrategic events mean that this is not a deal that can be cooked in foreign capitals. It has to be Made In Lebanon.

I tend to write optimistic blogposts. Perhaps it is because my house is in an area called the 9^th cloud of Yarze. While I may be on Cloud Nine, I hope I am not – most of the time – in Cloud Cuckoo Land. As I’ve explained elsewhere, we need to avoid giving in to the prevailing spirit of fatalism and defeatism about Lebanon.

This is also the right moment of the year to remember that this is the country in the Middle East with the highest proportion of Christians and a Christian President, at a time when – as Prince Charles has written – Christians in the region feel anxious, persecuted and threatened.

Let’s hope for a peaceful Christmas. But let’s work for a peaceful 2014.