Managing Contagion: The Battle to Keep Lebanon out of the War in Syria

I was asked to speak at the Issam Fares Centre tonight on how Lebanon can best manage contagion from the growing crisis next door in Syria. Thanks as ever for the input via Twitter.

Lebanon faces no more pressing question. We won’t have the luxury of addressing other issues – the potential gas bonanza, Leb2020, the regional challenges – that I’ve covered elsewhere on this blog unless we can prevent the Syria crisis from enveloping its neighbours. We must focus national and international energy on the battle to keep Lebanon out of the war.

I think that there are four particular forms of dangerous Contagion from Syria, and for each there are options for Lebanese citizens, Lebanese leaders, and the international community.

The first is human contagion. Lebanon is hosting 1/2 million Syrian refugees, but the real number of Syrians here is over 1 million. That’s like the population of Canada moving to the US. Host communities are bearing the burden, with extraordinary generosity. Schools have swelled, hospital queues have lengthened, some are finding themselves undercut in the labour market, disease and crime levels will rise.

The answer is not to lock the door – Lebanon can’t, physically, legally or morally. Lebanese communities will need to continue to do what they are doing, with tolerance, kindness and respect. But they should also demand of leaders a strong, prioritised response, that meets the needs of hosts and guests. And they should demand of the international community that it meets the commitments it made at the Kuwait conference, and sets out with more urgency, leadership and generosity how it will help Lebanon and Jordan shoulder an unsustainable burden.

The second is violent contagion. The borders are more porous than ever, with a constant flow of arms and people. The army has responded with great professionalism and political subtlety to flash points, especially in Tripoli and the North. It has emerged as the institution of the state that has the greatest public confidence, and the best hope of weathering the storms ahead.

I hope that Lebanese citizens give it the public solidarity that it requires to do its job, and hold their nerve when that brings it into conflict with elements from any one community or confession, or when its courage demands sacrifice.

They should demand of leaders that they give the army the fullest political cover to carry out its responsibilities, anywhere and everywhere required. And they should demand of the international community that it gives the army the support to match its courage. Britain has more than doubled its funding in the last 18 months –  the training village in Hamat is becoming a training city.

The army is asking us all to go further – mobility, communications, protection, watchtowers.

The third is political contagion. Sectarian civil war in Syria risks pulling communities further apart, especially when there are reckless demagogues emerging to promote division. I’ve seen in my time here the extraordinary way that the Lebanese political class is able to absorb external shocks and pressure, to adjust and evolve.

There are huge public frustrations with the broken political structures, and at lack of state delivery. At a system in which power is exercised by blocking opponents rather than creating positive change. But if Lebanon is to withstand the shocks ahead, it needs that political class to be at its most elastic and resilient. How?

Lebanese citizens need to tell their leaders that they have the courage to coexist, as I argued in my last blogpost. As a logical next step, they need to demand of their leaders a consensual government.  And they need to demand of the international community genuine support for sovereignty, the constitution, independence. An end to pursuing individual national agenda at the expense of Lebanon.

Fourth, regional contagion. Key regional powers are playing a multi-dimensional chess game across the Middle East. There is an obvious and basic way to reduce the potential for Syria contagion – as our Minister, Alistair Burt said last week, don’t send your sons to die there. But Lebanese citizens can also demand of leaders that they enforce genuine disassociation from the Syria conflict.

Not a two faced disassociation where it is fine to fight across the border providing you don’t fight when you come back. Not an ostrich disassociation that amounts to no more than burying heads in the sand. But a neutrality that exposes those who undermine it, based on recognition that there is no other way to survive the crisis. And Lebanese citizens can demand of the international community that they give Lebanon the space it needs.

By driving with greater creativity and commitment a political solution to the Syria crisis. By supporting a more sustainable basis for Sunni/Shia relations across the region. By delivering a credible Israel/Palestine peace process, after a squandered decade. By preventing conflict between Israel and Iran. And most importantly for Lebanon, by establishing a cast iron international consensus to keep Lebanon out of the Syria conflict.

The battle also requires vision, and a change of mindset on Lebanon’s national toolkit – see earlier posts.

It matters to the UK that Lebanon pulls through. Basically a more secure and prosperous Lebanon leaves us more secure and prosperous. Just as a Lebanon in crisis will also be contagious. Which is why I reject the argument that this is none of our business. That we should simply be observers of Lebanon’s troubles.

I disagree – we are in the trenches with you. The challenges ahead, while tough, are not insurmountable. We will offer the practical support I have outlined, and we will press others to join us. Judge us on what we do, not what we say.

One of the perks of being a British Ambassador is that you get to quote Churchill for every occasion. As he said when facing a different ‘gathering storm’: when you’re going through hell… keep going.