Lebanon 2020

There is a joke that does the rounds in Beirut. Q: ‘What’s the definition of Lebanese long term thinking?’ A: ‘See you tomorrow’.

Like many Lebanese jokes, there is  truth in this. Of course, a focus on the short term is understandable, given the conflicts of the past, the volatility of the region, the interference of outsiders, and fragile political structures. But it can also be corrosive to good governance. Real strategy is all too often absent. Fatalism can be pervasive. People conclude that they should work around rather than confront challenges.

2012 will be full of such challenges. Lebanon, strapped to Syria by history and geography, can be insulated but not completely immune from the changes taking place there. Elections in the US, and Iran’s belligerence with the international community, make the wider geo-strategic context more uncertain.

So, within Lebanon, the main priority for the coming months must be hold together hard to preserve stability. But I also feel strongly that if we are to get through the tunnel, it is important that we are able to see a light at the end of it. I think that many interlocutors find it easier to discuss what Lebanon could be like – indeed should be like – in 2020 than 2013.

At its best, Lebanon has been a talisman for the region. Proof that coexistence can work. A hub between East and West. Open, outward looking, intellectually and culturally precocious. As the Middle East grapples with the implications of the Arab uprisings, Lebanon should once again be playing this role.

So we want to start a conversation about Lebanon 2020. To lift debate beyond the year ahead, important as it is. Stability yes, but also growth and reform. A focus on the factors that unite rather than divide. We think that new groups, often disenfranchised, should be central to this conversation: business, civil society, youth. We must of course learn the lessons from the past. But we cannot make progress solely by looking in the rear view mirror.

Social media provides us with the tools to start this discussion. We will soon be creating an open space for debate on our website, and use Twitter (#leb2020, @hmatomfletcher, @ukinlebanon), Facebook and blogs to stimulate it. We’ll see where it goes from there – the key to this process is that it is not owned by us, but by those taking part. We simply hope that by asking the right questions, we can encourage a more honest discussion of the right answers. I strongly believe that we will find that the forces which hold Lebanon together are stronger than the forces pulling it apart.

Finally, why should an embassy be involved? Fair question. Only the Lebanese people can really decide what kind of country they want. But we think that there is a need for a spark from outside. And our core objective here, underpinning all we do on security and prosperity, is long term stability. So a brighter future for Lebanon is absolutely central to our national interests.

To start the process, we want to identify the big questions – please let us know, on Twitter and in response to this blog, what you think they are. Hope you’ll take part. Let’s see where it leads us.