Geopolitics and investment… and graduations

There seems to be an unusually large number of challenging geopolitical issues all surfacing at the same time at the moment. This was the conclusion of a panel I spoke on at the annual conference of the International Investment Funds Association (IIFA) in Canberra this week. The panel was chaired by DFAT Parliamentary Secretary Senator Brett Mason, and included the Swiss Ambassador and the Singaporean High Commissioner. We all represented countries which are major financial services hubs. The IIFA comprises National Fund Management Associations from around the world.

In my presentation I talked about three major current issues which are dominating our TV screens: ISIL; Russia/Ukraine; and Ebola, and a string of others including: tensions in the South and East China Sea; slowing economies in the Eurozone and BRICs; and instability in various countries in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. We noted that apart from a general impact on investor confidence, one way these tensions impact on global business is through energy markets, with potential concerns about Iraqi oil and gas supply from Russia to Europe. My Swiss and Singaporean colleagues added their perspectives and we discussed the role which various international organisations, including the UN, WHO, WTO, NATO and G20 play in promoting stability and security. I described how the UK economy was doing well: with 3.2% growth this year we’d be the fastest growing developed economy. Afterwards we had a lively Q and A session chaired by Senator Mason: he studied at Cambridge and knows the UK very well.

The previous day I had taken on a rather different speaking engagement. I had been invited to address the graduating class of one of Melbourne’s most famous schools, Scotch College, an historic Scottish Presbyterian foundation, by my friend Tom Batty the (British) school Principal. It was great to see the eager anticipation of the boys as they prepared to head off to the next stage of their lives. I talked about the some of the opportunities and challenges they would face, but warned that the world changes so fast no-one could really tell them how their world would turn out. They would be the first generation of kids to be able to stay in touch with all their schoolmates for ever through social media. I quoted the distinguished philosopher Pharrell Williams on happiness (they laughed politely, but my own kids always tell me that dads shouldn’t try to be cool). Finally I quoted from Hamlet: Polonius’ advice to his son Laertes as he headed off to university, “This above all; to thine own self be true. And it follows as the night the day, thou canst not then be false to any man”. Shakespeare always has a good way of putting these things.