Britain’s longest serving Foreign Secretary, Sir Edward Grey, famously looked out from his office overlooking St James’ Park in early August 1914 and, as war loomed, commented “the lamps are going out all over Europe”.
I often thought of those words in August 2008, during the Russian aggression in Georgia, not least as my office, as International Security Director, enjoyed the same view over the Park.
I thought of them again yesterday in the Spring sunshine, as I joined Carl Bildt in the Foreign Secretary’s office for his meeting with William Hague.
Ukraine was top of their agenda. Both Ministers see the present crisis as a defining moment for European security.
Yesterday’s G7 leaders’ statement makes clear that Russia’s annexation of Crimea would be profoundly destabilising, illegal and unjustified, as would a unilateral declaration of independence by Crimea.
Moreover, there is no basis for the claim that Kosovo’s UDI in 2008 is a precedent. For one thing, the process to determine the future status of Kosovo was authorised by a chapter VII UNSCR (which I had a small part in negotiating) back in 1999. It involved extensive negotiations supported by the international community, not unilateral actions which most of the international community have rejected.
There are big issues at stake here. A fundamental principle of post-Cold War Europe has been that borders cannot be changed by force. If that is now being called into question, the implications are grave. Tomorrow’s meeting between Ministers Kerry and Lavrov comes at a critical moment.