17th June 2015 Ottawa, Canada
#ClimateDiploDay: Working together to tackle climate change
This is a joint editorial I signed with my French counterpart in Canada Nicolas Chapuis to mark EU Climate Diplomacy Day. If you have comments use #ClimateDiploDay on twitter or contact me @HDrakeUK.
Right across the globe, diplomats, citizens, scientists, artists and policy-makers are gathering and speaking with unanimity: climate change is a real challenge that transcends borders and requires unprecedented international cooperation. With the Paris climate conference fast approaching, 2015 is a decisive year for climate negotiations. Today, EU Climate Diplomacy Day, is an important reminder that we are already halfway through 2015 and that action is needed now as emissions continue to rise.
The economic and security risks of global warming are significant. We have already begun to experience their direct impacts from increasingly frequent and severe flooding, to rises in heat waves and storms, to loss of trade and earnings. All have the potential to have a profound impact on our way of life. But there are also economic advantages to confronting the problem sooner rather than later, including new business opportunities, high value jobs and research and development.
Thankfully progress is being made as more and more countries, Canada included, are coming forward with Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Both the United Kingdom and France have already taken ambitious action to become global leaders on climate and the EU was one of the first to release its INDC, with the goal of achieving at least 40% domestic greenhouse gas emissions reductions on 1990 levels by 2030.
The G7 climate statement last week provided additional momentum on the road to Paris, representing a strong statement of intent by G7 countries to continue to pursue ambitious action on climate change. It included language on adopting an ambitious, robust, and inclusive climate deal in Paris; the need for decarbonisation of the global economy over the course of this century; and countries’ commitment to mobilizing $100-billion of climate finance a year from public and private sources by 2020.
With just 5 months to go until the conference, we believe that we are on the right track but we have still some way to go. If we work together, we can deliver an ambitious international agreement so that we can all look forward to a greener, safer and more prosperous future.
When will the magnesium carbonate buffer break in the ocean and at what ppm CO2 and what can we do about it?
I have carried out a multi-year study on ocean pH and have included all the relevant equations from Zeebe and Wolf-Gladrow’s book ‘CO2 in Seawater: Equilibrium, Isotopes,Kinetics’ which contains the solubility product equations for CO2(2-),HCO2(-) and H2CO2 as well as for magnesium carbonate (magnesite) and calcium carbonate(both aragonite and calcite) buffers. I have included as much relevant chemistry in the analysis as I can including phosphorus and boron , ,sodium,chlorine and fluorine salts.
The pH equations I used are the SWS scale equations from Brookhaven National Lab which were made public by Ernie Lewis and Doug Wallace who are scientists there.
I projected the CO2 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere into the future, assuming continuing industrial development and population growth and urbanization and deforestation rates remain constant. I used the Mauna Kea data set for CO2 ppm, and used a Bayesian Markov Monte Carlo simulation to project CO2 into the future. With these CO2 levels, I was able to calculate the equilibrium year by year at the surface of the ocean and with the diffusion equations I was able to solve them to depth (1000 feet) using temperature and salinity profiles that are publicly available.
This result showed me that the magnesium carbonate buffer would break in the ocean around 2021-2025 over a 2 year period, and both of the following can happen.
1) When the buffer breaks, CO2 will well up from the depths, and the ocean will off-gas CO2 into the atmosphere causing atmospheric heating due to the green house gas, and more extreme weather events with the water cycle worldwide.
2) The ocean pH could drop by as much as 1 pH level to 7.3 from 8.3 worldwide. This , along with temperature heating in the ocean, could cause the demise of the krill and phytoplankton populations that have already been decimated since 1950 by 40% due to pollution and temperature changes.
If this happens, the base of the food chain in the ocean could be at serious risk of collapse and with it , all life in the ocean. This would eventually ripple onto land food chains and might cause a collapse over the entire earth of the ecosystem food chain. This is a serious probability..
I believe both of these effects will happen to greater and lesser degree simultaneously and at different places in the worlds oceans when the ppm reaches 493 ppm approximately around 2021-2025.
I believe a real chemistry experiment needs to be done aswell, just to confirm the simulation is correct, by adding CO2 to seawater at room temperature and pressure in a closed container until the pH changes, and note the concentration of CO2 above the seawater when this happens. I predict it will be about 493 ppm CO2 for the first pH change when the magnesium carbonate buffer breaks and around 878 ppm CO2 when the second pH catastrophe occurs, and that is when the calcium carbonate buffer breaks in the seawater!
We need to act now with new technology that generates energy without emitting CO2.
I believe an efficient natural gas-solar hybrid engine that emits no CO2 and is very fuel efficient is possible
Please see the following links for more information:
Under Science Forums at TheNakedScientists.com, in Technology section the question : Can we build an efficient hybrid natural gas-solar engine that emits no CO2?
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=60132.msg466461#msg466461
check out: Can we save the marine life with Ocean Engineering?
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=69577.msg505754#msg505754
Keep in mind that 18 milliLitres of H2O = 18 grams approximately which is one Mol of H2O if it is pure and that is equal to 6.023×10^(23) molecules of H2O. Now imagine the whole Ocean. According to K. Gubbins of Cornell University even 100 molecules of water is too combinatorially explosive to calculate the quantum wavefunction of, so its impossible to predict what will happen in a LIVING OCEAN in the future! But it is best to take the side of caution and act now to remove CO2 from the Ocean!
A very great thought and step to tackle climate change. I think it is very essential to rising general awareness about this matter. The massive change will be fruitful when everybody aware about the harmful effect of climate change. A very important massage for save the green world and fight for the better future for our child’s.