Yes, Moscow, there is a Syrian Moderate Opposition

‘Spin Doctor’ is a phrase that emerged in the English language. Judging by Russian information operations over its actions in Syria, it should have been Russian.

Russia says it is hitting at Da’esh. But its actions speak louder than its words. It has in fact primarily targeted opposition fighters opposed to the Assad regime. 85% of Russian strikes have been in areas where ISIL is not even present.

Russia seems to be playing along with the regime’s fantasy that all opposition groups are terrorists. In fact, the majority of opposition groups are moderate. They are key to a Syrian-led transition because, alongside the political opposition in exile, they offer a credible third narrative for Syria apart from the tyrannies of Assad or ISIL. Furthermore, from an international security perspective, Russia’s regime-serving narrative risks weakening them as the only credible ground force against ISIL.

Who are the armed opposition? Leaving aside ISIL, which has almost no presence in Western Syria, and who are in open conflict with all other opposition groups, there are two broad categories of armed opposition. Some are doubtlessly extremists, most notably Al Qaida-linked  Jabhat Al-Nusra (JaN).

But by far the larger group are what we would call ‘moderate’. That means not extremist, nor terrorist, but focussed only on the removal of the tyrannical Assad regime and the horrors of ISIL from their country. Aside from in JaN’s stronghold in parts of Idlib and the rural far North-West of Syria, more moderate forces dominate the space.

How are moderate groups engaging with the political process? A common misconception of the moderate armed opposition is that they are removed from the political process. Though their focus remains an existential battle against both the regime and ISIL, moderate groups have in fact been heavily engaged in Track II negotiations. This has led to all of the main groups agreeing to a political platform including protection of minority and women’s rights, political pluralism, representation, free elections and the rule of law, and action against Al Qaida terrorism.

Contrary to the regime’s narrative, these groups are pragmatic and understand how their values, some more conservative than others, fit in into a  context of a democratic, civil state, where their view is one amongst a plurality.

Why are they important? Taken together, moderate groups have over eighty thousand armed men fighting both the regime and ISIL. Their support is crucial for a sustainable political solution, and they have strong credibility with much of the Syrian population. This credibility means they offer the best hope of defeating ISIL in Syria, from both a military and ideological point of view.

However, under increasingly heavy bombardment from Russia and the regime, moderate groups are themselves under ideological as well as military pressure. The danger of radicalisation is real; those fighting on the frontlines may be tempted to defect to well-resourced extremist groups who they feel can best channel their anger, and best fight their corner. This is why Russia’s actions are so counter-productive: not only are they weakening the forces who are fighting ISIL, they are also fuelling radicalisation as they do so.

The UK has always been clear that there can only be a political solution to the conflict. This is why it is important for us to encourage unity of purpose between moderate armed groups, the National Coalition and other political actors; and to support their engagement in the political process. However whilst Russia – a UNSC member – continues to attack them, it is quite clear why they struggle to see the benefits of this.

The UK also remains completely focused on defeating and degrading ISIL through the Global Coalition, and on preventing further humanitarian disaster in Syria, which has resulted in the migration crisis. In October alone the Coalition destroyed ISIL Headquarters near Kobane and al Hasakah as well as an ISIL training camp near Raqqa. The UK – unlike Russia – has purposefully not intervened militarily in Syrians’ civil war – instead we have focused on defeating terrorism, both ISIL and Al-Qaeda, providing over £1bn in humanitarian aid to support the Syrian people, and assisting the moderate opposition to create the space needed for a genuine political process.

Syria desperately needs a political solution to its crisis of nearly five years. We can’t even get started on this unless Russia stops targeting civilians; stops the Regime’s barrel bombs; and stops targeting opposition groups who are fighting ISIL and are part of the future of Syria.