DRC: The future still can be bright…..but not on the current trajectory

When I last blogged about DRC, I set out why the UK/DRC relationship mattered, the importance of democracy as the bedrock of stability and my strong hope that the government would reaffirm its commitment to respecting the constitution and to delivering Presidential elections within the mandated timeframe.  Last week I was in Kinshasa.  Following my conversations with representatives of the government, opposition, the Church and civil society, that hope remains as strong as ever, though I am sorry to say that I am less optimistic than I was when I last visited DRC in November.

DRC is a great country, a vibrant country, an environment in which lively challenge has been admirable, a country in which there has been relative peace for ten years. For all of these steps forward, the government, and the President personally, is to be applauded. But there is a risk now that these advances will be reversed, that citizens will increasingly feel a decline in the freedom to challenge, protest and oppose lawfully, and that, rather than being applauded for ten years of greater stability than before, the Government, and the President will be vilified for electoral delay, violence and repression.

I’d hoped that we would see a new high point in democracy in DRC: a responsible government ready to hold a free and fair presidential election, in accordance with its own constitution, and to allow a responsible transition of power to a new leader. This would, I judged, be a shining example for the region, and for the African continent as a whole, demonstrating DRC’s strong democratic credentials and commitment to serving the will of the people.

Unfortunately, since then, we have seen little evidence of the necessary political will on the part of the government to hold elections on time. As I said to the media gathered at the press conference I gave in Kinshasa last week, the government has done nothing to contradict the impression that it has no intention of organising elections within the constitutionally mandated timescale. With political will, we could already have seen much progress in delivery of the technical steps needed to conduct elections. The UK and other international partners had offered financial support for the update of the electoral roll and there was no reason for the work not to be well advanced by now.  However progress is frustratingly slow. With political will, we could have seen a government reaffirmation of commitment to the constitution and all parties willingly joining a dialogue on how to deliver the election on time. But time has been passing and we have seen too little positive progress.

From my interactions with opposition and civil society colleagues, the impression I had was that rather than settling any questions or uncertainties, the constitutional court decision seems to have sown further uncertainty and concern amongst a population fearful of plans for a protracted period with no elections and no change.

Alarmingly, we’re also seeing a repeat of past patterns of repression of the opposition and reduction in political space. This destructive trend is a step away from DRC’s constitutionally enshrined freedoms and the African Charter on Democracy. Ultimate accountability for such oppression ultimately lies with the governments under whose leadership acts of repression take place.  I have particular concern about recent political repression in Haut-Katanga. I sincerely hope that the recent charges against an opposition candidate for President and the arrests of political activists, are not an extension of this narrowing political space.  The UK’s stand is that those liable for acts of repression or violence will be responsible for their actions and decisions.  Alongside our partners in the international community we are prepared to consider all options when responding to events over the coming months.

Burundi should be judged to be a sobering example for DRC. Before the 2015 Presidential elections, President Nkurunziza had a high public approval rating, and had achieve a lot – in terms of stability and initiatives for the public good, including the building of 5000 schools over ten years. Had he left once his two terms were up, he would have been considered a good leader who had achieved a lot then passed on the mantle responsibly.

However, over the last 12 months, President Nkurunziza has presided over a period of violence, instability and serious human rights abuses. The EU rightly cut all aid to the government on the basis that Burundi had failed to adhere to Article 96 of the Cotonou agreement due to a lack of commitment to human rights, democratic principles and the rule of law. Both the EU and the US imposed travel bans and asset freezes against key government and opposition figures involved in committing human rights abuses.  The ICC has opened an investigation into abuses. Most economists estimate that the Burundian economy will crash within the next six months. The security picture and future of the country is looking uncertain.

In the form of the Arusha dialogue, Burundi now has an opportunity to get back onto a course of stability and security. And I sincerely hope that Burundi embraces this opportunity. But it will never quite return to the status quo ante. Too much life has already been lost.

As a friend to the DRC, as someone who does not want to see this great country going through a new period of violence, turbulence and economic decline, I would ask the government to stop a potential slow train crash before it happens.

The Government of DRC can still decide to champion democracy by committing publically to timely elections and by empowering CENI to take action to address technical blockages. It could commit to the swift opening of a dialogue led by Edem Kodjo and supported by an international panel – under UNHCR 2277: a dialogue designed for all those who care about the future of DRC to work together to remove obstacles and to see positive progress.

The Government can also guarantee the right of freedom of expression for everyone. It would be a powerful and positive statement for the DRC to release all political prisoners and to commit to no further arrests and no further harassment.

If the Government of DRC takes these actions it will show that it is truly committed to democracy and positive change in this great country. The UK will do all it can to support and champion these values.