Flood

The last two winters in Minsk can’t be more different.  Last year, we had snow on the ground continuously for five months.  In the middle of March we even had a blizzard, метель in Russian, although I think it was called буря – storm – at the time.

This year, I’ve learnt the Belarusian phrase каля нуля – around zero, when the temperature hovers around freezing point and there is continuous freeze-thaw.  This happened over Christmas and New Year, and again for much of February.  We only had a sustained period of freezing weather in January.

If it’s been unusually mild this winter in Belarus, it’s been quite different elsewhere.  North America has had record cold and lots of snow.  And Britain has simply been wet.

I gave a talk to a group in Gomel in December about the great storm of 1987, when millions of trees were blown over in Britain, although north-west France suffered even worse damage.  I explained two recent storms on 28 October and 5 December were almost as strong as that of 1987.

I didn’t say that we’d also had major flooding due to rain in 2000 (“the wettest year recorded since records began in 1766”); and again in 2002, 2007, 2008 and 2012.

That was in mid-December.  Since then, we’ve had even more storms.  Many parts of the country have been affected, and we’ve been hit by a “triple whammy” of bad weather.

First of all, we’ve had storms with high winds, which have caused lots of damage.  These have been combined with tidal surges – high tides that have risen higher than usual because of the low air pressure.  And then we’ve had lots of rain.

The result has been major flooding of coastal areas in the North and East of Britain after the surges in early December.  The series storms in early January were particularly bad for the west of Britain;  and the storms, winds and high tides caused major disruption in early February in southern Britain.

The rain has hardly abated so that one particular lowland area, the Somerset levels, has been flooded for nearly two months continuously.  Several rivers have also flooded, including large parts of the Thames.

Britain has been heavily flooded before.  As the BBC pointed out, London was badly flooded in 1928.  We also experienced a major surge on the east coast from the North Sea in 1953, although the worst damage was in the Netherlands.

We have learnt from these events.  Major flood defences were built especially after the 1953 surge, and we have also built a large barrage in the Thames Estuary to stop flooding in Central London.  The problem has been that this year the combination of storms, tides and rains have all come at once.

The Met Office has even written up a special report that explains how this has come about because of changes in the jet stream, the air currents in the higher altitudes of the earth’s atmosphere.

Belarus has its own drainage problems because it is flat.  I’ve learnt that, as in English, there are various words in Russian for flood.  I suppose the simple one is наводнение, but I’ve also learnt затопление which is nearer to “flooding” or “submersion”.

The recent floods in Britain have sparked a debate about improving flood defences, dredging rivers and so on.  But it’s also led to a renewed debate about climate change.

Weather experts had described the 1987 storm as a “once in a lifetime” event, just as they had described the extensive floods in 2000.  This year’s storms released a lot of energy against our coasts.  While this may be due to changes in the jet stream, they have made a major impression on the people in their wake.

Climate change is complicated subject.  But when we see with our own eyes the storms, rain and floods, the idea becomes very real.  Britons are very interested in the issue of climate change.  The floods have given us extra motivation.