I was delighted to discover last week that Granma, one of the two daily newspapers in Cuba, has come round to the idea that public opinion surveys are a good basis for a news story. They definitely are and they are also useful for public policy makers – we’ve been using them in the UK for years.
The Granma story was all about how the polls show how unpopular many political leaders in the Europe and the US are at the moment. The numbers they used were fairly selective and didn’t show for example how popular some policies introduced in Europe are. For example according to this poll fewer British people are now worried about the economy than six months ago.
However, the really interesting question is how Granma are going to now use public polling to evaluate the success or otherwise of policies in Cuba. I would be really interested to know for example what Cubans made of the reforms introduced in 2013. What, for example, did they think of the new migratory laws introduced in January? Were they pleased with them? Do they think the new laws are fair? Or what do they think of the new internet cafes introduced in June? Do they think this was a good move? Are there enough cafes? Is the speed fast enough? Are the prices too high or just right? And what do they think of other measures introduced during the year? Are they pleased the car market has been freed up and people now don’t need an authorisation letter to buy a car? Do they think it was a good idea to close down the 3D cinemas? Who should be allowed to sell second-hand clothes in the country? What do they think of other reforms introduced? And what reforms would they like to see introduced in 2014?
A long list of questions I know but all could be answered with some timely public polling. You don’t see many polls in Cuba but Granma has clearly bought into the idea and see them as a useful tool. So I’m looking forward to seeing a lot more articles next year based on information from polls. For them to be really valuable though, the poll needs to be statistically solid and carried out by an organisation that is independent from the government or political party the polling is about. It is also important to publish the whole poll and not just choose one or two figures; most newspaper readers around the world read ‘between the lines’ so giving them as much information as possible is important. If you want to learn more about polling, check out Ipsos MORI, YouGov or Gallup’s website; the YouGov page on methodology will be of use for any budding pollsters in Cuba.
Of course, polling doesn’t only have to be about public policy. It could be about anything. Did you know for example that 60% of people who go to sports stadiums in the UK expect the food to be unhealthy? I wonder what the number for Cuba would be.