2016 was lots of things. Forgettable wasn’t one of them. It will give students of politics plenty of stuff to write about decades from now. And it will live on in our own memories for years to come.
So how to describe the year that was… what? And what does that mean for us in 2017? Here’s some personal thoughts.
- Surprising. 2016 was the year in which we learned to expect the unexpected. Polls and pundits got it wrong. Incumbent governments had a tough time – although the sitting Prime Minister was re-elected here in Australia (albeit by a tighter margin than predicted). In the UK, we voted to leave the European Union, and saw a new PM and Cabinet come into office. In the US, Trump confounded the odds to beat Clinton. We can all debate why these things happened; but the fact is that they did. So 2017 will be about going with the grain of what people want in each of our democracies, and maximising the opportunities within that.
- Sobering (part I). Because some of the above undoubtedly reflects a growing gap between leaders and people, between the so-called elite and the rest, a loss of trust in institutions of government. I’ve blogged about that previously: suffice it to say that rebuilding that trust, that connection, that sense of fairness is critical to our mission as diplomats and as representatives of our governments. I’ll keep doing my bit towards that here in Australia.
- Sobering (part II). 2016 also saw some appalling terrorist outrages – in Europe (including Nice and Berlin); in Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, the US, Pakistan and many other places around the world, resulting in the loss of innocent lives. Extremism and hatred of different kinds drove people to commit acts of violence – including the appalling murder of Jo Cox MP and, only a few weeks ago, the killing of Andrey Karlov, the Russian Ambassador to Turkey. And conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and elsewhere proved intractable, with devastating loss of life and ongoing mass movements of refugees. I fear this is one area where we can expect more of the same in 2017; which puts a premium on diplomats doing all we can to address these challenges. We will be working with our close friends like Australia to make a difference – to defeat Da’esh, to keep our countries safe, and to minimise the humanitarian impact of war.
- Better than we thought it was. Yes, really. I’m thinking of some outstanding sporting moments for us Brits: a year of triumph for Team GB at the Rio Olympics and Paralympics; the joy of seeing the Welsh football team progress to the semi-finals of the European Cup; not to mention Chris Froome, Andy Murray, the English Rugby Team. But there were also breakthrough moments in some long-running conflicts – notably the FARC peace deal in Colombia. And, if we take the long view, life keeps getting better for the human race – even if we overlook that at times. Read this brilliant article by Max Roser if you need convincing: by every measure (poverty, literacy, health, freedom, life expectancy) we are the lucky generation – although the challenge is to ensure everyone feels part of that, and not left behind. And if you still need cheering up, listen to our Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, on the same theme.
So in 2017, I’ll be taking the longer-view, remembering that our problems often seem insignificant compared to those of our grandparents’ generation – grappling (among other things) with two world wars within a 25 year period. I’ll be working ever more closely with Australia to strengthen our ties and make the most of the opportunities that world events (including Brexit) have to offer. And I’ll be taking more time to spend with loved ones, thinking of 2016’s life lesson that you can’t take anything for granted.
Happy New Year to all.